In 2024, the global lighting market was worth over $115 billion, and LEDs made up more than 60% of sales. That sounds like mission accomplished in terms of sustainable illumination, right? Not quite. New data shows that even LED manufacturing contributes up to 200 million tons of CO₂ emissions annually, depending on the production cycle and energy supply.
This reality has sparked a spirited debate across the home improvement and sustainability markets. LEDs were touted as the end-all be-all of eco-friendly lighting. But innovators — including Signify (formerly Philips Lighting) — argue the story is just beginning. Their pitch: technologies like solar-integrated fixtures, biodegradable lamp components, and light-as-a-service subscriptions will define the future. Homeowners, investors, and contractors alike are watching closely, because if these bets pay off, how we think about lighting in a house could radically shift in just a decade.
The Data: The Post-LED Landscape
For years, LEDs dominated the sustainability conversation. Here’s the thing: while LED adoption slashed U.S. residential lighting electricity use by nearly 50% between 2015 and 2022 (U.S. Department of Energy), the industry faces diminishing returns. Once every home, office, and industrial site switches to LEDs, efficiency gains plateau.
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Global LED saturation is expected to hit 90% by 2030 (International Energy Agency).
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Yet, lighting demand is forecasted to grow 60% over the next two decades, mainly due to population growth and electrification (IEA).
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Manufacturing and disposing of billions of LEDs annually creates a new e-waste challenge. A 2023 EU report estimated that 8 billion retired LEDs could enter waste streams yearly by 2035.
That’s where companies like Signify step in with the “beyond LED” narrative. Their focus is on circular design — recyclable fixtures, modular bulbs, solar-powered luminaires, and even digital platforms to monitor usage. The promise? Lighting systems that don’t just consume less electricity, but also create less waste and deliver more value over time.
Let’s be clear: LEDs are a massive improvement. Compared to incandescent bulbs (90% heat waste!) and even CFLs, their energy savings are undeniable. Cities switching streetlights to LEDs have slashed municipal electricity bills significantly. They’re durable, long-lasting workhorses. But they aren’t the eco-Utopia we often portray.
The People: Voices from Inside the Industry
“This smells like the classic case of a technology reaching maturity too fast,” said an energy analyst at BloombergNEF when asked about the LED plateau. “Manufacturers are in a rush to show investors they’ve got something new to sell, and sustainability is the language that sells right now.”
But insiders at Signify push back. A former Philips Lighting engineer, speaking on background, told Forbes-style reporters: “LEDs solved efficiency, but sustainability is not just about watts. We’re now talking about how to design lighting that lives in a circular economy context. That means products that come back to us instead of ending in a landfill.”
A current Signify executive went further. In a recent industry panel, she argued: “Homeowners want lighting as a service, not as a product. Imagine subscribing to light: you pay for brightness in your home, but you never buy a bulb again. We maintain every unit, recycle the components, and continuously upgrade the system.”
Not everyone buys the pitch. Some contractors, especially in North America, view these models as “too futuristic” for homeowners still struggling with basics like smart lighting controls. Yet, in Europe, pilot programs for lighting subscriptions are gaining traction, particularly in the Netherlands and Germany.
The Fallout: What This Means for Consumers and Investors
If you’re a homeowner, the immediate implication is choice overload. For decades, “efficient lighting” meant simple — pick the right LED. But now you’ll be confronted with new decisions: Should you invest in a solar-integrated light system for your backyard? Should your indoor lamps be compostable? Will you save more subscribing to light than buying bulbs?
For businesses, the bet is bigger. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate the circular lighting segment could be a $30 billion market by 2035, assuming scale in both residential and commercial arenas. Venture capital firms are already sniffing around. As one clean-tech investor told us, “This feels a bit like the solar story in 2008 — messy, full of hype, but impossible to ignore.”
The downside risk is obvious. Consumers may resist paying monthly fees for something as mundane as lighting. Contractors may drag their feet, slowing adoption. And if regulatory frameworks don’t catch up — for instance, figuring out how to certify biodegradable or recyclable lighting components — the whole experiment could stall.
But the upside? For investors, betting on companies driving circular lighting could mean getting ahead of the next trillion-dollar green building trend. For homeowners, the payoff could be homes with zero lighting waste, near-zero electricity bills, and fully integrated smart-light networks that adapt to circadian rhythm and daylight availability.
Pulling Back: A Wider Industry Trend
Zooming out, the “beyond LED” push by Signify echoes broader cracks in the clean-tech conversation. Solar, wind, and EVs all faced backlash when their hidden costs surfaced — land use, battery mining, grid instability. LEDs are on the same arc. They saved energy but didn’t solve the whole problem.
That’s why competitors like Osram, GE Current, and small disruptors in Asia are now racing into the same territory. Compostable lamp casings, algae-based bioplastic fixtures, sunlight-harvesting smart glass — the ideas are multiplying, though many remain prototypes.
Here’s the thing: history suggests only a few of these will scale. If Signify is betting on circular services while another giant doubles down on biodegradable manufacturing, this could set up a massive divergence in strategy, with consumers caught in the middle.
Closing Thought
The big question isn’t whether we can design eco-friendlier light sources — clearly, we can. The bigger gamble is whether people will pay for these radical new models or stick with cheap LEDs until something else forces their hand.
So, will circular lighting’s promise of “light without waste” become the next home improvement revolution, or is this just another corporate attempt to repackage an industry that already claimed victory? Investors, homeowners, and policymakers may soon decide if Signify will lead — or be left in the shadows.